Institute of Demography: Ukraine cannot avoid further population decline

Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Elena Makarova states that Ukraine cannot avoid a further reduction in population even with positive birth rate trends.

E. Makarova said this on the occasion of World Population Day, which, by decision of the UN General Assembly, is celebrated annually on July 11.

She reported, citing statistics, that Ukraine is seeing a rapid decline in the overall population, primarily due to young and able-bodied people.

"And, unfortunately, the forecast in this sense is extremely unfavorable. Even with the positive birth rate trends that we are seeing now, we will not be able to break the trend of population decline. The birth rate in the foreseeable future will not even provide for simple reproduction of the population," the specialist said.

She also noted the deepening of the population aging process in Ukrainian society, that is, the growth of the proportion of the population over 60-65 years old. “This process is inevitable in the future,” she assured.

“According to the forecast, the population will decrease, and its number by 2050 will barely exceed 40 million. The proportion of young people will decrease,” she stated, referring to the data of the developed forecasts on the trends and consequences of demographic processes in Ukraine.

According to her, due to the low birth rate, the country is experiencing an “aging” of the population.

"Compared to the census data of 1959, 1989 and the last one in 2001, we see that the rural population and the female population have aged the most in the structure. The average age of people in the regions fluctuates from 36 years in the west of the country - Zakarpattia, Rivne, Volyn regions, to 43 years - in Chernihiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions," the researcher stated.

Thus, according to forecasts, compared to the 1959 census, the proportion of older people in the structure of Ukraine’s population will increase from 10% to 32% in 2050, while the proportion of middle-aged people will decrease from 55% to 50% and the proportion of the younger population will decrease from 34% to 18%.

In addition, there will be a significant gender imbalance in older age groups, especially among singles. If we consider the ratio of men and women aged 60 and over in relation to the entire population of the country, there will be about twice as many women, and if we take the data only for singles, the ratio is 1 man to about 8 women.

Separately, E. Makarova focused on the need to introduce the concept of lifelong education - to update knowledge and skills for older age groups of the population, taking into account that in the world the renewal of knowledge and technology is happening at an incredibly fast pace.

"The economically active population will not be sufficiently replenished in the foreseeable future by young people who have the knowledge that meets the modern requirements of an innovative economy. Today, the intellectual and creative potential of older people is not fully utilized. And, in addition, there are quite persistent stereotypes in society, negative ones, regarding the role and abilities of older people," the specialist noted. In her opinion, state policy in the context of an aging population should be based on at least two components: the first is a policy aimed at changing the demographic structure, in particular, increasing the birth rate and replenishing the young population through migration policy, and the second component is support for older people, with a pension being their main means of material support.