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Changes in the sun's activity will increase the risk of radiation exposure to airplanes
Last reviewed: 30.06.2025
The Sun's exit from maximum activity is likely to increase the risk of radiation exposure to aircraft and spacecraft, according to researchers from the University of Reading in the UK.
Scientists note that there is serious cause for concern, since the design, operation and insurance of vulnerable technologies are based on past data and do not yet take into account long-term changes in the “space climate”.
The current “grand solar maximum” has lasted longer than any other in the last 9,300 years and is expected to end soon. Changes in near-Earth space will return our planet to conditions that existed before the advent of modern, highly sensitive systems such as spacecraft, power distribution networks, and aircraft.
Experts emphasize that at commercial aviation cruising altitudes (especially at high latitudes), high-energy ionizing radiation (solar and galactic) can cause particularly serious damage to electronics and irradiate the crew and passengers.
The International Commission on Radiological Protection has set an annual dose limit of 1 mSv. If an eight-hour commercial flight in the polar latitudes had taken place during the solar storm of Halloween 2003, the participants would have received 70% of that dose. The Carrington geomagnetic storm of 1859 (the most powerful known to science) would have exceeded the limit by 20 times.
If the galactic radiation level of the last solar minimum were to repeat itself (let's pretend for a moment that solar storms don't exist), a human would be allowed to make no more than five round-trip flights (that's ten air trips total) in a year.
Based on past experience, the researchers predict that there is an 8 percent chance of an "absolute" minimum in solar activity within 40 years, which would result in extremely high radiation doses. A more likely prediction is to expect a moderate increase in galactic radiation, but at the same time, an increased risk of a major solar storm.
Scientists also remind us that over the past 160 years, the geomagnetic field has been declining, which means that radiation exposure will only increase.
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